Case 02
Physical climate risk mapping and TCFD disclosure for a cement producer
- Sector
- Cement and construction materials
- Service cluster
- Climate and Physical Risk + Sustainability Reporting
- Year
- 2023-2024
- Anonymity
- Under client NDA
Case 02Problem
A multi-plant cement producer was under pressure from CBAM (the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) because of its EU exports and, in parallel, from investors for TCFD-aligned climate disclosure. The existing sustainability report focused on Scope 1–2 emissions; there was no physical risk map and no asset-level hazard modelling. The investor question was clear: 'Which of your plants are exposed to which climate events towards 2030?'
Approach
Approach — A 6-month, three-phase programme
We sequenced asset-level mapping, financial impact modelling and TCFD/IFRS S2 disclosure so each phase fed the next.
Exposure screening
Geographic mapping for 7 production sites and primary raw-material logistics rings (heat, water stress, flood, storm) — IPCC SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 across 2030/2050 horizons.
Impact modelling
Quantitative financial impact via Climate VaR for production disruption, water access, cooling systems and logistics degradation.
Disclosure preparation
Gap analysis against TCFD's 11 disclosure recommendations and IFRS S2; draft 'Climate Risks' section for the annual report.
Outputs
- Asset-level physical risk heatmap for 7 sites (2 scenarios × 2 horizons)
- Climate VaR financial impact table (for 5 material risks)
- TCFD-aligned disclosure section draft (the 'Climate Risks' chapter of the annual report)
- Adaptation prioritisation matrix (3 sites priority investment, 2 monitoring, 2 status-quo)
Outcome
Sayılarla.
| Metric | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| TCFD's 11 recommendations (G/S/RM/M-T) | 3 / 11 addressed | 11 / 11 addressed, 7 with quantitative data |
| Scenario-based financial impact estimate | None | Climate VaR range for 5 material risks |
| Adaptation investment decision basis | Intuitive | Prioritisation matrix + ROI framework |
| Internal climate-risk literacy | 2 people | 14 people (workshop + field) |